Energy efficiency targets explainedhttps://www.stefanscheuer.eu/wp-content/themes/osmosis/images/empty/thumbnail.jpg 150 150 Almut Bonhage Almut Bonhage https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/a3d1000d4d9fc174801655823d6ddab4?s=96&d=mm&r=g
The European Commission proposed a 2030 EU energy efficiency target of at least 9% below the new REF2020 scenario, in absolute numbers 1023 Mtoe for primary energy consumption (PEC) and 787 Mtoe for final energy consumption (FEC). This level is based on the ‘Mix55’ scenario of the Climate Target Plan. The European Commission states this is the level needed to reach in a cost-effective way the EU 2030 climate target of reducing GHG emission by 55% and ultimately the carbon neutrality target set for 2050.
This level of ambition:
- is to be seen as an absolute minimum. Going below would jeopardise the climate neutrality goal and make the clean energy transition more expensive;
- is well below the cost-effective potential for energy efficiency. According to latest modelling, it would stand at 18% for PEC and 17% for FEC;
- is built on the current 2030 target gap for FEC. The new baseline EU reference scenario (REF2020) reaches in 2030 a PEC of 1124 Mtoe, which is slightly below the current target of 1128 Mtoe. For FEC, the REF2020 reaches 864 Mtoe, well above the current target of 829 Mtoe. According to explanations in REF2020, this difference for FEC is due to unambitious national contributions set by Member States in their NECPs summing up to -29.6% instead of the required -32.5%. The gap for PEC was closed by taking into consideration measures to phase out coal and nuclear.
- The proposed target level is at the lower end of what is needed to secure a fast, fair and attractive transition to a climate-neutral energy system. A higher target level would be beneficial in particular to protect the most vulnerable. In order to achieve a higher level, the annual savings in Article 8 need to be adapted accordingly (see position of the Coalition for Energy Savings, January 2022).
- The binding character of the EU target and national contributions, and a strengthened target governance are key for the success of energy efficiency policy.
- The weak REF2020 baseline is due to the ambition gap in implementing the current 2030 target. This is a sign of policy failure. The EED recast should fix this.
 Final energy consumption plus international aviation and minus ambient heat (different scope of PRIMES model).
 Stefan Scheuer Consulting, Fraunhofer ISI (October 2021): Will the Fit for 55 package step up energy savings policies? A high-level assessment.
 The EED recast changes the FEC definition (new Eurostat method), excluding energy used in blast furnaces, which we estimate around 17 Mtoe in 2030. The current FEC target is adjusted accordingly from 846 to 829 Mtoe.
 COM (July 2021), EU Reference Scenario 2020, p. 98